I Don’t Know Why I Talk About Crypto in a Public Setting
0 for 2. That’s my hit rate in publicly forecasting bitcoin price action. Crash & burn.
Can’t get everything right. That’s trading. You just have to manage risk within your directional bias regardless of the asset class.
If you read my piece from mid-July on BTC, then hard and major props to Katie Stockton and her team at Fairlead Strategies. They literally bottom-ticked the bitcoin price.
Although from a short-term standpoint I’ve made a couple of idiotic calls on BTC, I firmly believe in the long-term potential of blockchain technologies’ disruption.
“Metaverse” is being bandied about lately as if the Oasis will be online by Christmas, but that is a major, major area where blockchain tech has the potential to install itself at the heart of a new-ish digital economy.
And if so, then early on it appears Ethereum may be the killer app. Too early in the game to tell, but ETH looks like the stallion to bet on based on wide usage as the foundation for so many trust-applications. It’s not about investing in a “currency” to replace the USD. It’s about investing in the future of commerce.
Or at least that appears to be the path. Why else would the largest of largest Silicon Valley angel veterans be investing in the space? They don’t appear to be worried about contributions to the “enabling” of cybercrime empires.
To crypto nubes, maybe this is enlightening. To crypto vets, this is all old news.
Now let me take another shot at a crypto price projection and see if I can’t get my batting average up to .333. Worse case, my commentary can be readily identified as anti-correlated to BTC & ETH price action and I go 0 for 3.
TradeSmith has a timing service for assisting with forecasting various asset classes. The premise of the service is that everything follows a cycle. Everything. And once a cycle is recognized then TradeSmith’s software can make a best guess on future price action.
Below is a chart of the Grayscale Ethereum ETN (ETHE) using that forecasting tool. It’s not about amplitude; just general direction. The composite forecast line (purple) shows an interesting set-up for the ETN. Observe the green lines denoting the upward advance within the last 2 cycles.
Are we on the verge of another possible run upwards in Ethereum? Current action and sentiment sure seem to be lending themselves to the notion.
After recently commenting on Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey to Bloomberg, Vitalik Buterin’s shared a vision for ETH:
And he continues to have big plans for the Ethereum network. When asked where he sees it in five to 10 years, Buterin replied, “hopefully running the metaverse.”