Margin Rich

Recent Animal Spirits and Some FX Dynamics

First, let me start by stating how poor my read was on HY in my last article. I grossly underestimated the level of fear in debt markets and grossly overestimated the potential for large capital to reach for yield.

The USD’s ascent should have told me everything I needed to know, that the extremes in credit volatility were just getting started.

Mid-Summer has arrived and with it a slackening in fear. We can review some market extremes near the end of the article, but it’s important to first address forex dynamics and their current impact across markets.

The USD is the sun in our forex solar system, and really the financial system. It’s movement affects all other currencies, commodity pricings, and is an effective gauge of animal spirits.

A few weeks back, the USD looked toppy. I contended that the USD would correct which would kick up animal spirits for risk. All we needed to validate that hypothesis was not so bad earnings, an anticipated CPI, and GDP to be shrugged off. Lo and behold, all three happened while commodities were in the midst of a breather, thus reducing expectations for next month’s CPI.

The dollar is key right now as it is getting a temporary reprieve as a must-have haven.

Maybe I’m not reading the room correctly. It happens. Bloomberg journalists seem to think so.

Article from last Wednesday (7/27/2022):

What’s funny is that the dollar had already turned over and yet this still went to print. Bloomberg articles about the dollar have a pretty solid track record the past year as a contrary indicator.

Here’s a few more articles and a chart of the USD notating time of publication and the exact opposite move occurring:

1. May 21, 2021

2. August 31, 2021

3. December 28, 2021

Which all begs the question, where to park if not in dollars?

The Yen is the obvious carry and capital is flowing. The European economy appears worse than the US. At least the US has energy. So flows into the Euro will probably be muted. The pound is seeing play because it reached an extreme. That leaves the commodity currencies, CAD & AUD, but that’s not going to cut it. Which leaves the Swiss Franc. The Franc is still a trusted haven-currency and I believe it’s volatile past several weeks portended the move in the USD.

While the other reserves were diving, the Franc was chopping upward. The Franc’s action looks like confused capital; almost like a begrudging acceptance as a dollar alternative in the current environment. I happen to think this also portends a move in gold as the Franc and gold share a long-term love affair defined by a consistent correlation.

It appears gold is ready for some action and it could be sustained action. I suspect gold’s move will be predicated upon it’s perception as a reserve asset. Despite punching above it’s weight economically and financially, Switzerland cannot sustain inflows and the SNB will just defend its currency anyway. This leaves gold as a non-USD alternative haven that can handle the capital inflow to an extent.

$1775 (green) was the first line of resistance and it was met quickly. $1915 (yellow) should be next. If gold gets there then the USD should have already breached $103 support with $99 as a potential stopping point. After $1915, all time highs past $2080/oz are blue sky. These numbers are “ish” numbers, not exact calculations as foretold to me by an astrologist.

Blue sky is great. But with a controlled asset like gold, excitement needs to be tempered. Yes, gold is a powerful currency, however it’s held in check. That’s fact. New all time highs will ensure it won’t be long before we hear the foolish siren calls of $5k/oz or even $10k/oz. any second now.

So don’t get too excited but now might be a time to start dabbling in the shiny metal.

Back to the stock markets.

When I was contemplating the dollar’s down-move and how to play the uptick in animal spirits, I projected the S&P 500 to maybe crap out at about 4175, a hi-lo move of 15%. But now I’m not so sure. We hit that number quickly so a short breather might be in order. Markets have to give bears a chance to say, “See, I told you so.” Before a potential final move higher.

Large capital will be waiting to sell at 4200, but the dollar’s descent has more room to run. Additionally, there’s massive amounts of skeptical capital that missed this last move. Between chasing and squeezing I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 hits 4315-ish. But that should fill the belly and satiate the bulls in this bear market rally for a rough hi-lo move of 18% – 20%.

Now if you’re a skeptic of the recent rally, you’re far from unique. How can you not be considering the economic and geopolitical situation in which the world resides?

But of course, there were only dozens of data points indicating the extremes in the stock markets, flashing bright neon yellow signs to buy. Here’s a smattering of charts in case you missed them weeks ago.

Had enough?

After a 15% run higher off the lows, the S&P 500 does not have much more room to run so some profit taking this week could set the stage for the final leg of the bear market rally.

As this goes to print, equities are in day 2 of some corrective action and the USD is seeing inflows. Nothing moves in a straight line. Watch the currencies closely to help guide your macro-decision-making.

Credit Rumbles But Juice Left to Squeeze

Posted on March 22, 2022 by Margin Rich

Rising Rate environment. War in Europe. Inflation printing at levels seen 50 years ago.

Known knowns so they’re priced in, right? I suspect so.

Last week’s price action in equities is being widely viewed as a short-covering event. And there is a plenty of evidence to support that notion, which I agree with. But that doesn’t mean we haven’t seen a potential legitimate shift in animal spirits for risk assets, at least in the short term.

We’ve gone from 0.00% to 0.25% on the Fed Funds rate. Threats of an additional 50 basis points if and when needed at any of the next FOMC meetings and potential initiation of balance sheet runoff by the start of Summer

With 6 remaining meetings in 2022, you at least have a printed schedule of interest rate risk-events.

If the known knowns are essentially priced in, then how much volatility is left to sell and hedge? Which brings me to junk or rather high yield (HY). With the start of the year, the HY spread began to widen, but I suspect with current risks digested, people are still going to stretch for yield.

Over the past few years, each spread-widening event has been met with subsequent compression. Observe.

Why? Because interest rates are so low and capital requires yield. End of story.

Rates are still historically low and the Fed’s balance sheet liquidation process still awaits. This means liquidity. Recession risk is obviously rising as earnings will assuredly contract, but again, what’s priced-in in the short-term? I’d wager more than speculators suspect.

HYG is sporting a meaty 4.25% yield and a slight discount to NAV to boot at the time of article composition.

Sentiment in HY has reached an extreme, as observed in the HY McClellan Summation (courtesy of SentimenTrader). Observe an extreme not seen since the GFC.

Additionally, debt-volatility as measured by the MOVE (courtesy of TradingView) has begun to abate. Is the worst over? Not sure, but there’s enough signs to wager yes in the short-term at the very least.

Let’s take a look at HYG from a technical standpoint. A couple of things jump out. One, the buying thrust in volume last week (200M+ shares traded). Over the past few years, this level of green volume has typically led to solid, multi-week or month rallies as noted by the yellow circles. Couple failures (red circles) in 2020 as the world was being taught how to live with a pandemic. Different environment now.

HYG has also bumped down into it’s 150-week EMA. Nothing magical about that, but it did prove to be a stopping point at the end of 2018 when people were thinking the next GFC was upon us.

Huge risks are everywhere. None can be marginalized but they do have to be appropriately discounted and I think the markets are doing that now. If you’re looking for yield and maybe a bit of capital gain, HYG is worth a look at structuring a play.

Pride Goeth Before the Fall? – A Performance Review of 2021

Posted on March 1, 2022 by Margin Rich

It’s been awhile since completing a review of market calls made here at Marginrich.com. As my general knowledge of market inter-workings and crowd psychology has refined over the past several years increasing in nuance and depth, now’s as good a time as ever.

Let’s start with accuracy percentage and a list of the articles with basic details. Then I’ll provide a quick, detailed breakdown of each call afterwards down below. We’ll work backwards from the most current post, skipping 2 posts where I don’t make any directional calls or predictions.

Nine of the 11 asset forecasts between December 2020 and December 2021 were correct, for an accuracy rate of 82%. Stellar by any definition, especially for a free blog written in spare time. Each forecast was actionable via options, futures, the underlying asset, or simply raising cash.

Forecasts:

1. Trading Brazil – 12/12/2021: The Brazilian Real would strengthen against the US Dollar and Brazilian stocks were about to be re-rated higher. (CORRECT)

2. Options Markets Muting Signals – 11/20/2021: Trapdoor underneath stock markets and potential for a large selloff in the near future. (CORRECT)

3. Insiders, Metaverse, and Options – 11/16/2021: Options usage too extreme; quick & shallow selloff felt very close. (CORRECT)

4. I Can’t Fight This Feeling – 10/24/2021: Commodities sentiment extreme and due for a selloff led by oil with a rise in the US Dollar. (CORRECT)

5. If Everybody’s Thinking Alike, then… – 9/13/2021: Technically, I stated the cannabis sector looked as if it might be basing for a potential up-move. I didn’t actually make a directional call, but I’ll still own it. Same goes for EWZ, for which I actually did make a directional call 3 months later. (WRONG)

6. Volatility Interpretation – 9/1/2021: Volatility was about to show its face in stock markets. (CORRECT)

7. I Don’t Know Why I Talk About Crypto in a Public Setting – 8/30/2021: Ethereum on the verge of another run upwards. (CORRECT)

8. The Best Part of Waking Up – 7/22/2021: A correction in coffee was imminent. (CORRECT)

9. Bitcoin – A Quick Technical Read – 7/16/2021: I thought BTC had one more puke-dip into the $20k range, anywhere between $21k and $29k. Major whiff. My article actually bottom-ticked that particular correction before BTC went on to return over 100% within 4 months. (WRONG)

10. Oil Taking Its Breather…Finally – 7/7/2021: Oil correction had begun (not obvious yet) and XLE would sell off accordingly. (CORRECT)

11. Beware the Secular Trend’s Short-term Counter Move – 12/28/2020: The Euro/USD pair had reached an extreme point and a USD rally looked primed, which would coincide with potential fear-events in the equity markets. (CORRECT)

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So that’s the quick and dirty. Keep reading below for a bit more detail and to view the charts better illustrating each forecast. Each chart will have a yellow circle denoting the date the article was published.

Trading Brazil:

Calls on EWZ were the chosen expression for this trade. Pre-tax return was 100% in less than 2 months. While everyone has been focused on energy, I focused on an EM component that looked ripe to provide a kickstart to 2022 trading.

Real strengthening vs the USD. Any reader could’ve bet futures here on the currency pair for a tidy profit.

Options Markets Muting Signals:

This particular article actually top-ticked the NASDAQ Composite, but I didn’t go short here. Hindsight being what it is, I should have, but instead I simply raised cash levels for the opportunities that are currently availing themselves.

My focus was on the NASDAQ in this article however one has to include the S&P 500 if one is going to comment on general equity markets. No top-tick as there was a bit more demand for the S&P 500, but within a matter of weeks, the trapdoor opened for this index, too.

Insiders, Metaverse, and Options

You could almost smell the move coming, like a turkey basting for hours. Then, Black Friday delivered a little fear for the unprepared. No trade here as raising cash was the strategy, and the ensuing rallies assisted with that process. Going short up until the past few months was a dangerous endeavor and understanding option flows was and is critical.

I Can’t Fight This Feeling

That little 11% jaunt downward in the underlying ETF over the next month resulted in a 135% pre-tax return on simple Put purchases. Of course, energy as a sector is a different beast entirely now, and along with inflation, the Russia/Ukraine conflict has put commodities front and center of the financial space again.

The US Dollar followed it’s typical anti-correlation to commodities by rising. Since that initial run upwards, it has chopped in this uncertain environment. I suspect the ultimate, long-term path is downwards for the USD, but that’s a philosophical discussion for another time.

If Everybody’s Thinking Alike, Then…

Ugh, what else needs to be said? This one is ugly. To reiterate, I did not actually make a directional call or bet here. I simply thought that the bear market in cannabis may be reaching a nadir. But investors and speculators had other ideas as the market pounded this ETF for an additional 50% loss subsequent to publishing the article.

Volatility Interpretation

The article literally bottom-ticked the VIX. Unfortunately, I didn’t directly trade Vol here. I used the ensuing volatility to pyramid some positions in the long portfolios.

I Don’t Know Why I Talk About Crypto in a Public Setting

Those percentages in the chart above were from the publishing date of the article (yellow circle). The actual moves were, 20% as annotated for the first ascent, then a quick 50% downdraft followed by a 75% spike. If you ignored ETH in 2021, or crypto period, then you missed some of the best trading opportunities of the year.

The Best Part of Waking Up

Coffee was the gift that kept on giving for about 4 weeks in late July through late August, before squeezing out of an old school pennant to what seems like non-stop upside. The initial trade was simple Puts on the JO ETF for a 40% pre-tax return in a week. Then I was able to scalp 20% in a week out of JO with some Calls before finally squeezing the last bit of Put juice for 10% in a week before THE breakout in coffee.

Subsequent to those trades, I did overestimate the extreme in buying-sentiment and underestimate the impact of the freeze in Brazilian crops. Consequently, I gave back a bit of the profit with additional Puts and failed to capitalize on the ensuing multi-month rally as a result of my bias. All additional lessons at a fair tuition price.

Bitcoin – A Quick Technical Read

I darn near bottom-ticked BTC with this particular forecast. So wrong! As BTC goes, so goes the crypto markets so it wasn’t long before I was pursuing the other opportunity as noted above. As has been said countless times by countless players, trading is all about managing risk (control losses & maximize gains).

Oil Taking Its Breather…Finally

Oil (West Texas Intermediate) was overdone. I top-ticked the high in July on the day of publishing and was fortunate to estimate an unsurprising 20% sell off in the commodity.

I favored Puts on the XLE as the expression for this trade and the market rewarded me with a 100% pre-tax return in under 8 weeks.

Beware the Secular Trend’s Potential Short-term Counter Move

I published this article in the midst of what felt like virtually everyone expecting the “obvious” demise of the USD. The dollar’s imminent demise down into the $80’s has since proven to be fallacious logic. Its haven status as the world’s reserve currency has kept it afloat and demand will probably keep it there for some time until internal and external geopolitical/economic events shift perceptions and capital flows.

Once again, the anti-correlated pairing could’ve provided currency traders with an exceptional opportunity. Admittedly, I failed to take advantage of this potential trade with a currency pair expression.

What I did do was expect more intense volatility. As such, I purchased hedges which ended up costing me insurance premiums as the S&P 500 simply chopped for a month before continuing onward and upward. Sure, I was correct about some volatility but wrong about the amplitude. Still though, I contend that the price paid for peace of mind was worth it.

It’s my sincerest hope that if you’ve read this full performance-review that my skills and experience are apparent. I’m not some wannabe, greenhorn daytrader posing as a professional. Although I mostly showcase my technical analysis skills here at the site, I’ve honed my fundamental analysis skills for all asset classes and sectors. Over the last 20 years, I’ve poured my heart and soul into building an amalgamated skill set around a professional-level understanding of investing, finance, banking, currencies, economics, accounting, business operations, sales, geopolitics, crowd psychology of markets, leading/managing/coaching, and asset management.

Now I’d like to test those skills in the appropriate arena. If you’re here just to have a read, I hope you’ve enjoyed. I’ll continue to intermittently share actionable thoughts. But if any readers from the professional, financial space are interested in how I can benefit their organization, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Email address is listed at the menu button in the upper-right of the screen. My LinkedIn profile can be accessed at the About page by clicking the hamburger in the upper-left of the screen.

Here’s to a fruitful 2022 for any and all readers of Marginrich.com.

Trading Brazil

Posted on December 12, 2021 by Margin Rich

Putting the trade on in September, when I wrote about it, just didn’t feel right but I’ve continued to observe the price action. I think we have a tradeable set-up now in Brazil. Since topping out in late June, it’s down 33%. The commodity euphoria has finally waned a bit, or rather other asset classes have moved to the forefront of investor minds (mainly tech again for now). Couple this with a potential strengthening of the Real against the USD and we have a chance for the stock prices of Brazil’s largest companies to be re-rated in the short-term.

Observe the correlation for EWZ (green) price spikes vs the USD (light blue) weakening against the Real.

This chart alone looks like a good enough set-up to allocate capital, but the Timing by TradeSmith forecast (purple line) just below shows there’s potential room for a bit more consolidation before an up-move. But there is a definitive, tight correlation to the forecast line and actual ETF performance. This might be the most successful forecast by TradeSmith’s software that I’ve analyzed.

What that means for our trade is that we need to purchase a strike far enough out (theta) to give the hypothesis time to play out. Volatility in this ETF is sharp. Observe the wavy action, surfable swells if you will, of rallies and drawdowns in the chart. It’s readily obvious.

Roughly half of the ETF is positioned in just 5 stocks, which are Vale (iron/coal/base metals), Petrobras (oil), Itau Unibanco (banking), Bank Bradesco (banking/insurance), and Ambev (beer). I don’t need to know their prospects to determine if the set-up is worth a trade as potential movement in the Real can improve investor perceptions of them as EM investments.

In September, I thought that $34 might be a potential bottom but it was too early. Still though, $34 represents an important price point. Only now it is resistance instead of support. $31.50 should be the first line of resistance, but once broken, it looks as if it could easily run up to $34.

The indicator that I probably put the most stock in is also at a favorable place for an EWZ rally as it just crossed over its oscillator. I’ve highlighted in cyan each crossover occurrence over the last few years. Positive price action tends to confirm.

As I’ve mentioned countless times, I prefer weekly charts to guide my trading theses. But for you daily enthusiasts, EWZ is displaying a nice clean breakout to recover it’s 50-day SMA. Based on my analysis, the 200-day should be next. Observe:

In any event, I suspect there are multiple opportunities amongst “emerging” markets such as Brazil as a result of potential weakness on the horizon for the USD. S. Korea is showing similar action as observed in the EWY.

So watch the US dollar and place your bets accordingly on some international holiday speculations!

Options Markets Muting Signals

Posted on November 20, 2021 by Margin Rich

Now that the options markets are the tails that wags the dog, equity market signals are losing power. Or at least temporarily losing efficacy. It doesn’t feel like a permanent arbitraging away, but huge capital (regardless of source) knows how to use broker dealers and market makers to maintain a supportive stance for respective portfolios.

I’ve been analyzing plenty of signals that a trap door is set up just under the stock markets. Amongst those signals is the clustering of Hindenburg Omens in the NASDAQ. A single Omen rarely proves useful, but clusters have been consistently effective in communicating large sell-offs ahead of time. Observe the following chart, courtesy of The Felder Report:

Just based on the chart, one would think that a large drawdown is very close. In the past couple of decades, any time we’ve seen clusters of the Omens in a single calendar year reach 13 or more, then it usually was a portent for a heavy risk-off period.

Subsequent to November’s OpEx, if large capital simply continues to allocate to higher strikes farther out on the calendar for the major indexes, then the signal the cluster is communicating could be totally dampened.

It simply hasn’t paid to be the least bit bearish, but it feels like we’re drawing closer and closer to a period in the markets where fear and option flows could feasibly create a perfect multi-year set-up for expert surfers of price action.

Looking out 10 years, my gut tells me that there are fair odds that markets won’t experience a single, long drawdown similar to the Tech Crash or the Great Financial Crisis. Instead, we’ll experience rolling drawdowns (15% to 35%) through the 2020’s but with an overall upward tilt on a long-term price chart.

It’s just a theory. The Final Arbiter will reveal its hand in time, but you might want to consider waxing up your board and getting a new wetsuit for the potential environment ahead this decade.