Money May/Mystic Mac Prediction

The outcome of the fight tonight will be a 12-round decision for Mayweather.  That’s been my thought process from the beginning.  His defensive wizardry and experience will rule the day.  Look no further than the Canelo fight for a clear, recent example of how Mayweather treats younger, bigger, and stronger guys.

Even up till a couple of days ago you could get +300 on your money for a Mayweather decision.  Seems like a ludicrous prop on a book’s part, but the bookmakers make the lines for a reason.  They know.

None the less, Mayweather in twelve.

In a fight, it’s been my observation and very limited experience that 6 factors consistently seem to rule the outcome.  These factors are from most important to least:  1. Skills  2. Experience  3. Ferocity  4. God-Given Power  5. Speed  6. Combinations.  Mac is favored in all 6 of these categories for a fight against Floyd.

In boxing, the factors are in a different order and defense replaces ferocity.  They are:  1. Skills  2. Experience  3. Defensive array(catching, slipping, spacing, etc.)  4. Combinations  5. God-Given Power  6. Speed.

The importance of throwing effective combinations in boxing rises dramatically in a 12 round match.  That second or third punch that slips through to a liver or behind the ear can often be the opponents unseen fight ender.

Floyd easily outclass Mac in all 6 of these areas in the ring, but it’s specifically number 3 of the boxing factors that’s going to give him the decision.  Enjoy the spectacle.

There’s Only One Pound For Pound King, And His Name Is…

GUILLERMO RIGONDEAUX!  Let me repeat that for you in case the bolded, underlined CAPS-LOCK wasn’t clear enough.  Guillermo “El Chacal” Rigondeaux is the best boxer in the world in any weight class, hands down, bar none, mic dropped.

For those that know boxing and have watched multiple fights of every purported top ten pound4pounder, I dare you to credibly dispute the claim.  For those that don’t know boxing but are intrigued by the claim, Rigondeaux is the ultimo artista in the ring.

He’s got two knocks against him for why he’s not a household name.  First, he’s 5’5 and weighs a buck20.  Unfortunately, casual fight fans just don’t want to watch little dudes weighing less than nothing showcase their defensive artistry for $59.99.  Which leads to the other knock against The Jackal.

He’s boring.  His footwork and spacing are so perfect he never has to engage in battle.

He happens to have perfect timing along with the skill to perfectly place shots so he hits but is rarely hit.  The casual boxing spectator simply doesn’t appreciate his fight style because it doesn’t look like boxing.  It looks more like a boring spar session.

Rigondeaux provides first hand, real time lessons to professional fighters what true skill looks like.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t drive paper-per-view or gate sales.

Most of the time, El Chacal is an undercard fight.  The best boxer in the world consistently warms up the crowd for the headliner.  I know it’s all about the numbers and the money but that just isn’t right.  Can we please get the Lomachenko fight?!!!

Somebody Fight Me, Please IIPhoto courtesy of fightland.vice.com

He’s a soft-spoken Cuban who defected to the US far too late in his career.  The quiet nature is why we don’t hear him promoting himself non-stop like another money-hungry, recently retired, defensive artist we all know.

The late defection is part of why he’s fought virtually nobody.  Guillermo is 36 now.

He was simply stuck in Cuba for far too long.  He’s arguably the greatest amateur of the last two decades, having won back to back Gold medals in 2000 and 2004.  Yet despite his supremacy in two Olympics and his complete domination of bantam and super bantam, he’s still a relative unknown.

He’s fought 17 fights total as pro and ten of those fights have been title defenses with a perfect 17 – 0 record.  And forget that recent no contest.  Still a title defense in my book.

Now the fight world is putting a lot of focus on Vasyl Lomachenko and many pound4pound rankings have Lomachenko ahead of Rigondeaux.  Lomachenko is itching to move up to welter at 135, but there’s still time to get a big money fight in with Rigondeaux at 130.

Rigondeaux needs this fight with Lomachenko.  Guillermo has only fought one name that fight fans will readily recognize and it’s Nonito Donaire.  And that damn fight was 4 years ago.

Rigondeaux effectively ended the career of Nonito.  At the time of their fight. Donaire was the supreme ruler of their weight class.  El Chacal then pummeled Donaire’s face for 12 straight rounds, embarrassing the Pinoy fighter to a 12 round decision while taking absolutely no damage.  It was a pugilistic sight to behold.

El Chacal Smashin Donaire IIIPhoto courtesy of boxingwales.com

Donaire was never the same after that fight.  Never.  That’s how damaging it was to the psyche of Donaire and I strongly believe Rigondeaux can do the same to Lomachenko.  Maybe I’m wrong and Lomachenko’s youth and power will rule the day.  I’m betting Rigondeaux’s experience and artistry prove my stance.

Rigondeaux is the best boxer I’ve ever seen.  He’s probably not the best ever, but he’s the best I’ve ever seen.  That includes Money May, Andre Ward, Ali, Sugar Ray Leonard and Robinson, and even my new current fave, Errol Spence jr.

If you haven’t had the pleasure yet, go and find some YouTube footage of Guillermo Rigondeaux.  One word…CLINIC.  Every match is a boxing clinic for the spectators and his poor opponents.

Rigondeaux is repped by Jay’-Z’s ROC Nation.  I hope they do him right by getting him the huge purse fights he deserves.  Yes, Rigondeaux is aging but he’s taken such little damage in his days that he could very well box into his early 40’s if needed to get that big payout, and he still may retire with an undefeated record.

Pay your respects to the real pound for pound boxing king, GUILLERMO “THE JACKAL” RIGONDEAUX.

Bitcoined to Death

September 2nd, 2017 Update:  Depending on when you read this for the first time, how ignorant do I sound as of today with Bitcoin having doubled from the original publishing date of this article?  Not to mention, all the other ICOs since then that are minting millionaires.  My knowledge and experience say this is one of the ultimate bubbles in history.  My brain and heart tell me to make hay while the sun shines.  My ego just calls me an asshole for continuing to miss out.

Have you had enough of Bitcoin and the awe-inspiring wonder of all things blockchain yet?  The blockchain not only cures cancer and AIDS but can make you fly…like Superman.  That’s the hyperbole surrounding cryptos.

“If only I’d just bought 10 bitcoins in 2009!”  Boo hoo.  So you didn’t get rich on Bitcoin.  You probably didn’t get rich on real estate in 2005 or tech stocks in 1999.  The investment world keeps turning.

Never invested in Bitcoin or Ethereum for that matter.  Maybe that makes my opinion irrelevant.

I have read a lot about cryptocurrencies though, specifically Bitcoin.  I missed that train along with the majority of people in the world.  I just can’t wrap my mind around something that isn’t universally accepted that has to be traded on potentially questionable exchanges where competing investments keep cropping up to defeat and dilute the entire concept of the limited-money.  Maybe I just don’t get it.

I do know that blockchain technology will stand the test of time.  The current crypto brands?  I’m not so sure.

My prediction, some sort of scandal or several will avail themselves quite soon causing a sell-off in Bitcoin.  It doesn’t matter whether it’s serious account-hacking somehow or exchange scams, because this sort of pricing will bring out the most intelligent criminals in the world.  And this latest maniacal move up will be entirely erased.  Hope I’m wrong.  Honestly.

Bitcoin YChart (5-28-2017)

Ever ridden the The Dragster at Cedar Point?  Bitcoin owners may be about to experience their own thrill-ride.

                      The Dragster - Cedar Point

If you haven’t hopped on the crypto-train yet and you feel the need to invest in one of the “currencies” in the current price environment, then by all means, indulge.  But consider having a read of these two articles.  One shares the opinion of an experienced player, the other about just one illicit way in which to have your profits harvested from you.

1. http://themacrotourist.com//macro/my-great-bitcoin-bungle

2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2016/12/20/hackers-have-stolen-millions-of-dollars-in-bitcoin-using-only-phone-numbers/#38bad65438ba

To current owners, I wish you well.

Flat or Bumpy: Choose Your Own Adventure

                                                                     The Abominable Volatility

Last week’s “whopping” 1.8% selloff on Wednesday shocked market players but was also blown way out of proportion.  The selloff also presented a nice little set-up to possibly scalp a few bucks out of the market over the next week or two.

Was Wednesday’s price action a precursor to some further weakness?  Or was it a one-inch pothole in the continued advance of this bull?

You choose the trade.  For you children of the 80’s, remember these books?  Hours of time wasted flipping back and forth as the protagonist.  The book reference is a good metaphor for the current state of the US stock markets.

                                            Volatility Hunter                 Don't Bother Trading

As I see it, the price action is saying we’re in for another little move downward.  I suspect no more than 5% down to around 2,260 on the S&P 500.  In the chart below, I’ve circled and described what I think can happen.

SPX Weekly (5-19-2017)

The recovery on Thursday and Friday are just small snapback moves for the real players and market makers to close out certain positions with a more positive effect on P&Ls.  Then the rug get’s pulled out from the crowd in a panic-inducing 5% “real” selloff.

This is just what the price action is telling me.  I’ve arbitrarily assigned a probability and bet (regional banks) and hedged (volatility) accordingly based on nothing but my hunch.

Incidentally, my old friend in the credit department thinks there’s room for a little further downside in the larger market.  Below is the chart of the action of what the credit-friend thinks.  Notice the tight correlation between the S&P 500 and my credit-friend.  It’s only over 90% positive, so maybe it’s nothing.

Friend in Credit (5-19-2017)

Besides my friend in credit, there is the alarming increase in vol shorts.  Or maybe the crowd is right.

VIX Shorts - ZH (5-21-2017)

To scalp or not to scalp?  You choose your own trading adventure the next couple of weeks.

Speed, Glorious Speed!

If there is one thing that has been so dramatically impacted in the markets since 2008, it’s the speed of moves.  The causes are widely known.  Number one, high frequency trading (“HFT”).  Number two, massive amounts of money and capital backing HFT ops in conjunction with low-cost capital freely available to the “players” for any and all speculations.

A player is defined as bank trading desks, asset managers, hedge funds, pensions, university endowments, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and any other sufficiently large entity managing money or assets.  And let’s not forget corporations and their buybacks.

The sheer velocity with which trend changes initialize now is amazing.  Trend followers will continue to have their impact because of their late nature to a move and their “pore-on” effect once the action is deemed legitimate.

Which leads us to the current sentiment in the buck, treasuries, bank stocks, copper, and steel.

Trump wins.  Buck goes up.  Bank stocks go up because rates go up.  Copper and steel go up because Trump is going to build four regional towers with elevators that reach the moon.  He’ll also build hyperloops all around the US.  Additionally, he’s going to revamp every bridge, tunnel, and plain old road with $4 trillion worth of modernization.

That’s how those five assets are currently trading.

Says to me, a short looks pretty good here.  I may be a little early.  But I think profits will be taken as fast as they’ve been made if sentiment reverses and the fervor dies down around the president-elect.

Convoluted Copper Chart - Weekly (11-28-2016)

Take copper.  The chart’s a little convoluted, but everything on it are charting 101 tools.  So chartists will instantly see what’s appears to be logical retracement points on a potential reversal of this fast trend.

That green-red, support-resistance line terminates right at the 20-week EMA.  If we were to see a profit-taking event, $2.30/lb. is as good a spot as any to maybe lock in short-profits as the mega-breakout at $2.20 just may be legitimate.

The same analysis can be applied to the other four assets, especially steel.  Using US Steel as a proxy, a 20% correction wouldn’t be surprising in the least.  There’s also a monster gap up at $20.

Two things most traders love, gaps and stems.  Technically, the stems are called “wicks” or “tails.”  I call’em stems because once they begin to grow on the underside of a candle, long profits seem to blossom.

It sure looks like little piles of money are building over in the corner.  Even if you don’t have the guts to go short, keep your eyes on the US dollar, Treasury yields and T-bonds, bank stocks, copper, and steel.