As you know by now, I think we are in the final stages of the topping process in major markets. This is going to be a multi-month affair. I suspect the top and crash begins later next year, but so do many other pundits, pros, and bloggers which makes me leery. There’s nothing worse than contrarian consensus by large groups in the game of speculation.
Like its predecessors, the crash won’t look like one at first. Sure, players will get scared and react but then we’ll see a bounce off the first initial move to the downside. This will be an opportune time to liquidate positions to make a final cash raise to either capitalize during the crash or wait for the inevitable value opportunities that will arise.
There is a set of indicators that go along with this move downward and bounce that has proven efficacy as a guide. It’s the 5 month and 10 month Exponential Moving Average (“EMA”). Observe.
These aren’t magic indicators. I’m not saying they are guaranteed to work. I’m only saying they’ve proven themselves as guides when a real bear move has begun. There are a multitude of economic and financial indicators that I also like to use along with anecdotal evidence, too. Keeping an eye on this particular set of EMAs however can potentially keep your losses to between 10% and 15%, assuming you act.
In a bear market where there’s the potential for a halving of portfolios, I’d say 15% in losses is solid.
Volatility in the biggest asset classes will be unimaginable. The algorithmic, high frequency trading operations in combination with central banks have broken all markets. There will be no liquidity for the big timers when the bear begins.
HFTs are the true market makers and all algorithms are written to pull away and sell when bottoms fall out of markets. Look at the S&P 500 in May of 2010. That was really the first indication that markets would never liquidate in a typical fashion ever again, until HFTs are properly regulated, taxed, or removed from existence in markets.
There are plenty of examples between May of 2010 and now, but the move in the pound sterling at the start of October provides such a fine illustration. What’s more liquid than the currency markets of the most developed and powerful Western nations?
Nothing. And yet still we see the destructive power of HFT on any market. Does this look normal in a power currency?
In earlier Asian trading, the intraday damage was even worse. Observe this bit of madness.
These moves are a product of liquidity being immediately vacuumed from the asset classes where all the largest players play. This will happen again and again when the markets make their final turn.
You can liken it to a hull breach for an astronaut in space without a suit on. One second astronaut HYG is floating around the lab in a jump suit, happily conducting experiments with OPM. But OPM in high-yield instruments in a low-yield environment can be a volatile material if not handled appropriately in a proper setting and an explosion occurs breaching the hull, sucking HYG out into the liquidity-free vacuum immediately to death.
Did I say liquidity? I meant oxygen.
You get the point.
Coming back to what a last gasp means; it means there will be a final run in risk assets to squeeze out the final profits of this bull. Many, including myself, have called it a melt-up, but I grow weary of the term.
Please don’t be fooled by some of the ignorance being freely proffered out there that we are in the early years of a cyclical bull, similar to 1982. We are not. The evidence is broad, clear, deep, and obvious. One needn’t a fancy finance degree or years managing wealth in order to see this.
The end game is here, but not before that last gasp for profits that I keep describing. I suspect that many of the sectors that powered this bull market prior to 2016 may reassert themselves to take us home. Why is that?
Interest rates. Plain and simple.
Those with access to leverage at these historically low rates will borrow capital to fund buyouts and takeovers which will drive asset prices upward. The upward move will then draw in speculators looking to hop on the trend or front-run it. This quest for yield whether in debt, equity, or private equity i.e. IRR, will be the fuel for the last gasp up in asset prices.
Despite what I think may happen in semiconductors or social or biotech or emerging markets as risk-on gains speed, keep your eyes on the one asset class that has taken out all comers in 2016. The Rocky Balboa asset class for the year. You know what I’m referring to and this is even with the recent sell-off.
Precious metals. You don’t have to love them or hate them. Opinions don’t have to be binary. Be agnostic when speculating. Follow the trends. Follow the money. More importantly, follow central banking and political lunacy.
Let’s look at one more chart that potentially validates that this bull market is long in the tooth. It depicts the times over the last 50 years when payouts to equity investors have exceeded profits.
You can ignore what is glaringly obvious or you can prepare.
Speaking of obvious, let’s begin to wrap this post up with another pithy little ditty of a quote, this time from one of the world’s great speculators. It’s been reprinted time and again, but it’s simple yet brilliant message is timeless.
I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.
– Jim Rogers
I haven’t touched on trading since the summer and I just wanted to share some set-ups that appear to potentially be building little piles of money in a corner waiting to be picked up.
Keep an eye on these sectors, either short or long:
Short: sugar, energy(big 3), US dollar, and technology
Long: grains, bouncing precious metals, and the pound sterling
Despite your opinions, never forget about counter-trend rallies, even in the face of what appears to be an unstoppable trend.