So if you read my article last week on handicapping, you might have thought that I might know a thing or two about betting on college football. My proclaimed, private record against the spread to start the season was stellar, but as soon as I go on the public record; my skills were a dud. It happens from time to time. Much like in trading, risk management is paramount so that you don’t wipe out your wagering stack in one weekend of idiocy.
Out of the 14 NCAA football picks I tossed out there, assorted between against the spread (“ATS”) and over/under (“O/U”) straight up bets as well as some parlays, I managed to choose a whopping 6 correct for an earth-shattering win-rate of 42%. For the 3 NFL picks, I only nailed one. Feel free to do the win-rate math in your head on that. Pretty damn weak stuff and it was enough to piss me off into posting this week with some more public picks, simply to assuage my own embarrassment. Whether I biff this weekend up or not, this’ll be the last public post(for awhile at least) on handicapping football.
There’s a few incidental details I’d like to share before posting my picks for the week. In regards to the 13 teams I follow as my ATS horses, they went a collective 6 – 3 last weekend. I’ll take a 67% win rate any time, anywhere. For the season thus far, the 13 teams are a collective 36 – 11 ATS. That’s a 76% win rate for you arithmetically challenged. Several of the teams have already had byes which is why the game totals do not equal 52. Now I gave you 5 of the teams in that last article. If you’re interested in the other 8, feel free to do the research.
Another annoying fact for me last week, was that I shared only my real-money picks. It’s very difficult to make good money picking 40 – 50 games and making 25 bets. It’s just not gonna happen. You have to be selective and so what I shared were what I thought were my best ideas. However, I also maintain a non-money weekly listing of total picks for the NCAA’s and the NFL, just to test my handicapping skills across a larger sample of games. Have a look at how I did in my real-money plus non-money picks for the NFL.
Again, these totals also include the real-money bets. There was only 1 college game I did not bet on and that was the Oregon game to cover. Good thing too as Mike Leach always seem to have those damn Cougars prepared for the big games but overlooking any small fry. Anyways, what really jumps out is the sea of green on the NFL side. I made 11 correct calls last weekend in the NFL for an 86% win rate. Unfortunately, I only bet 3 in a parlay and of the 3, two of them were my only incorrect choices. It takes real genius to pick winners and only place money on your losers. Normally, I’m pretty average at NFL handicapping but as the saying goes, on any given Sunday I may have a breakout weekend. This of course leads to a false sense of security due to misplaced hubris and the subsequent weekend tends to bring me back down to earth.
Well, enough complaining about my sub-par performance last weekend. Here’s this weekend’s real-money-only picks and total picks.
You can see that I went 1 – 1 already this Thursday in the real money and 2 – 1 in the total picks. Oh yeah, I almost forgot to mention the locks of the week. The locks of the week for this weekend are the over in the Baylor/Iowa St. game and the Falcons at minus 3 over the Vikings. Better tread carefully with those so called locks though as last week I went 0 – 2 with each “Lock of the Week.” Well I hope you enjoyed this little break from the finance game. With the markets showing weakness there’s plenty to comment on. I hope you raised your cash levels like I’ve commented on in the past several months. There some juicy ideas getting juicier for some long positions. Enjoy your weekend.